Gavin ([info]selfishgene) wrote,
@ 2008-07-21 13:41:00
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DNA Trawling
State crime lab analyst Kathryn Troyer was running tests on Arizona's DNA database when she stumbled across two felons with remarkably similar genetic profiles. The men matched at nine of the 13 locations on chromosomes, or loci, commonly used to distinguish people.
via The Agitator
The FBI is disingenuous when they claim Troyer is misusing their database by running unusual searches. As the database becomes larger and it is used more often the chance of invalid matches becomes much greater. A statistical calculation made when the database held a few thousand people is not relevant when the database reaches the millions. The use of DNA for law enforcement and civil actions is still increasing rapidly, this will boost the opportunities for invalid matches.
At the very least database matches must be rejected as direct evidence. If a person is a suspect a second match with the original sample needs to be done.



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[info]madfilkentist
2008-07-21 06:27 pm UTC (link)
The article says: "The FBI estimated the odds of unrelated people sharing those genetic markers to be as remote as 1 in 113 billion." I'm no expert in genetic forensics, but that figure strikes me as fantastic.

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[info]selfishgene
2008-07-21 08:54 pm UTC (link)
I presume the FBI is like the rest of FedGov. Statistics are simply made up to suit the mission. The media will simply accept them. It seems even courts admit them most of the time. Judges are just another kind of bureaucrat, lazy and conformist.

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[info]madfilkentist
2008-07-21 11:27 pm UTC (link)
There was some blog, I can't remember which one, that commented on an invalid transformation of statistics. Some agency said that 1 in N people -- let's say 1 in 100,000, just to have a number -- have the same DNA profile. They then inferred from this that if a random person's DNA matches the profile of a source, there's just one chance in 100,000 that the person isn't the source.

To see that this is bogus, imagine that there's some characteristic -- red hair might be close -- that one person in ten has. Then the agency would conclude that if some redhead committed a crime, and they arrest a random redhead, there are nine chances in ten that they've arrested the right person.

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