Gavin ([info]selfishgene) wrote,
@ 2008-06-24 17:38:00
Previous Entry  Add to memories!  Tell a Friend!  Next Entry
The Geopolitics Of China
The greatest military threat to China comes from the United States Navy. The Chinese have become highly dependent on seaborne trade and the United States Navy is in a position to blockade China's ports if it wished. Should the United States do that, it would cripple China. Therefore, China's primary military interest is to make such a blockade impossible.

(Post a new comment)


[info]jordan179
2008-06-25 12:05 am UTC (link)
This implies that America should invest in strengthening her submarine forces, since they are the most cost-effective method of blockade.

(Reply to this) (Thread)

[info]selfishgene
2008-06-25 12:42 am UTC (link)
Makes sense to me. Use submarines as missile platforms controlled from space. No surface fleet (merchant or naval) can fend that off, unless they can find submarines easily.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

[info]phanatic
2008-06-25 03:54 am UTC (link)
We're actually pretty weak in the anti-ship missile area. Never really needed to concentrate on it, since we're pretty much assured of air superiority at sea. Harpoon's okay, but nothing great, and the anti-ship version of the Tomahawk is pretty weak. We're converting a few of the Ohio-class ICBM subs into dedicated SSGNs that'll carry up to 150 or so Tomahawks, and that *will* be a serious problem for any such scenario, but really, even the fleet of 688s with Mark-48s would be death in a shooting war.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

[info]phanatic
2008-06-25 03:51 am UTC (link)
Pretty irrelevant. As a blockade is an act of war, if there were a situation where we'd blockage China, it'd turn into a shooting war pretty damned lickity split, in which case the Chinese navy dies within a few days. FWIW, we have about 50 attack subs, although clearly they aren't all in PACFLT.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

[info]philautos
2008-06-25 01:07 am UTC (link)
Blockading a major nuclear power would be a bit tricky. But if we had done it in 1989, things might be better now.

(Reply to this)


[info]whythawk
2008-06-30 08:43 pm UTC (link)
It isn't what China could do to the US, but imagine the impact on trade if Taiwan, Japan and South Korea suffered severe infrastructure damage. The world economy would collapse instantly.

(Reply to this) (Thread)

[info]selfishgene
2008-06-30 09:14 pm UTC (link)
The amusing thing is that Americans are terrified that China will strike economically or militarily against America. In fact China would lose far more in such a strike than America.
1. Even in a nuclear war China would suffer more, since America's missiles/bombers/submarines are better and more numerous. Although the difference might be small consolation to any American survivors.
2. In a more localized war China depends on Taiwan etc, far more than America does.
3. Economically an interruption with US trade would push China back to a much lower standard of living, maybe a 50% or greater drop. The US would only suffer a drop of 20% at most and probably recover most of that through trade with other countries.
None of this means politicians won't do something stupid and undo decades of growth in human happiness. There are too many examples of such evil in history.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

[info]jordan179
2008-07-23 12:53 pm UTC (link)
1. Even in a nuclear war China would suffer more, since America's missiles/bombers/submarines are better and more numerous. Although the difference might be small consolation to any American survivors.

A nuclear war would mean the end of China as a nation-state, as America would probably be left with some production capacity and a hell of a mad on against the Chinese. Even the initial exchange would result in the destruction of every significant Chinese city, and I don't think that America would immediately end the war after that.

3. Economically an interruption with US trade would push China back to a much lower standard of living, maybe a 50% or greater drop. The US would only suffer a drop of 20% at most and probably recover most of that through trade with other countries.

China would lose its entire maritime trade. Even in a limited conventional war, the US Navy could easily sink the entire Chinese merchant marine, and prevent any merchant ships of any nationality from calling at Chinese ports.

America would have a higher cost of living; China would have famine and possibly civil war.

(Reply to this) (Parent)(Thread)

[info]selfishgene
2008-07-23 02:44 pm UTC (link)
'China would have famine and possibly civil war' - even the current economic crisis in America could break the Chinese economy. Their economy is also based on massive bad lending by state banks to semi-bankrupt state enterprises. If all that started to unravel it could bring down the central government and start up the age of warlords again. China has a very long history of civil war. The current regime has maintained control for a mere 60 years.
The massive economic dichotomy between rich coastal regions and poor interior regions could lead to civil war. As long as the economy is growing smoothly (apparently) the crack can be papered over with promises and loans. If the economy falters some people will be tempted to desperate measures.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

[info]jordan179
2008-07-23 12:49 pm UTC (link)
It isn't what China could do to the US, but imagine the impact on trade if Taiwan, Japan and South Korea suffered severe infrastructure damage. The world economy would collapse instantly.

I don't think the world economy is that easy to "collapse," though I am sure it would go into a nosedive. I also hope that China is aware that, if she attacks Japan, she's probably brought herself a genocidal-level vendetta. Something like that would switch the Japanese over into warlike mode very fast.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

Create an Account
Forgot your login or password?
Login w/ OpenID
English • Español • Deutsch • Русский…